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Thread: Van der Wheil

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    Default Re: Van der Wheil

    “We would then be left with just a very good method of backing horses.”

    Whiteryder

    The one thing my research has shown is that the 3 most consistent method trapped a lot more winners in the late 70’s than it does now. I have seen a steady decline in recent years and now have the figure at about 51% for the 2009-10 NH season. Hardly what I would call a platform for continued success using the method.

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    Default Re: Van der Wheil

    I shall have to take your word for that Garston and there could be numerous reasons why. However, I'd still be more confident about a consistent horse carrying my money than an inconsistent one.

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    Default Re: Van der Wheil

    “VDW in it's entirety or parts of the VDW methodolgy either work for you in present day races or not. All the best to those that wan't to look at old races that VDW did not even mention.”

    Chesham

    Did not VDW say “those who select just parts, or fail to understand the concept as a whole, will not succeed.”
    Surely, looking at races he did not mention is just as important as looking at races he did mention. All VDW races have the “three horses for consideration”. Is it not just as important to investigate why horses were not selected the same as why they were.
    On a lighter note if VDW is 80 this month then he was about 6 or 7 when he started using his staking plan. Now don’t you wish we all went to a primary school in Holland.

    Another book which VDW may or may not have read is Racing For Pleasure and Profit by Kenneth Stewart published in 1966. Here he uses terms like “good betting proposition” but this is just standard language in racing terms (especially once you reached the bigger school in Holland). In this book the Author keeps repeating his own formula called the FACTS.
    “Fitness: F
    Money is more often lost both by the public and by people connected with a horses; trainers, owners and hangers on, because the horse when it races is not properly fit – than in any other way. A very good horse not yet fit can be beaten by a moderate one.
    Ability: A
    A horse must possess the right sort of ability; the hardiness and courage to give of its best every time it is fit enough to do so.
    Conditions: C
    The underfoot conditions (the going), and the conditions of the race; the class, the distance, the draw and the likely pace at which the race will be run, affect form almost as much as fitness. Class and pace are closely linked, as we shall see.
    Time/form: T
    A horse’s best performance to date can be rated in terms of time and weight carried in past performances, and points to the horse or horses with the best chance in a race – all other things being equal. They do this better, of course, in non-handicap races or in races in which the handicapper has not yet been able to assess the ability of young horses.
    Summary: S
    It is necessary to summarize the abilities, recent form, best form, likely fitness and hardiness of the opposition, referring all the time to the conditions of the race. Some races then become betting races, others do not. No race is a betting race for us unless it contains one of our type of horse: the courageous horse.”

    If the Summary is the hard work then it is quite similar to VDW’s formula.

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    Default Re: Van der Wheil

    HI Garston

    I'm not really sure what your mission is. Are you hoping to prove that VDW races were cherry picked by looking at old races that he did not cover.

    Are you finding it difficult to apply the methodology as it unfolded over the years in present day races or is it working fine for you?

    personally, I'm not really worried about the personal history of VDW, was spin but on the story to prevent others discovering his identity? VDW did say Don't accept a word that I have written, prove it for yourself, so fair play I guess that is what you are doing, but with older races.

    Chesham

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    Default Re: Van der Wheil

    Today
    Voramar Two 12.35
    Sam Winner 1.10
    Oscar Papa 2.50
    Banjaxed Girl 1.00
    Toubab 2.40

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    Default Re: Van der Wheil

    Have just started to read this thread with interest, and have still got an awfully long way to go (about 408 pages!!!). Got as far as page 8, and so far a few books have been mentioned, of which two have caught my interest to start with - The Golden Years of Van Der Wheil: Tribute to VDW 1978-1982, edited by Tony Peach, and Sad Kens Back in the ring. My questions: (1) are these books still highly recommended/worth it? (2) Anybody knows where they could be got for free if possible? (3) Do people here still believe the VDW method works?
    One book I also came across on the net in relation to VDW (know there are loads) is Methods and Mechanics of Che Van Der Wheil's Form Book by Tony Peach. Is this any good / worth it?

    Many thanks

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    Default Re: Van der Wheil

    Hi Damjuma

    THe basics are in The Golden Years and if you surf around you will find the basics of the book on the web. The other books that you mention I would not bother with the other books that you mention.

    The Ultimate Wheil Of Fortune and Systematic Betting are others to obtain. The Peg well Bay example is in the Silver Lining.

    The costly part is obtaining the old form books to check things out for yourself.

    Chesham

  8. The Following User Says Thank You to Chesham For This Useful Post:

    danjuma (25-01-2011)

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    Default Re: Van der Wheil

    I don't know about The Silver Lining but the Pegwell Bay example, which gives the clearest picture of VDW's method, is in Betting The VDW Way.

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    danjuma (25-01-2011)

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    Default Re: Van der Wheil

    Quote Originally Posted by danjuma View Post
    Have just started to read this thread with interest, and have still got an awfully long way to go (about 408 pages!!!). Got as far as page 8, and so far a few books have been mentioned, of which two have caught my interest to start with - The Golden Years of Van Der Wheil: Tribute to VDW 1978-1982, edited by Tony Peach, and Sad Kens Back in the ring. My questions: (1) are these books still highly recommended/worth it? (2) Anybody knows where they could be got for free if possible? (3) Do people here still believe the VDW method works?
    One book I also came across on the net in relation to VDW (know there are loads) is Methods and Mechanics of Che Van Der Wheil's Form Book by Tony Peach. Is this any good / worth it?

    Many thanks
    It's my view that the Sad Ken 'Back In The Ring' is the most useful of all these publications.

  12. The Following User Says Thank You to FormBet For This Useful Post:

    danjuma (25-01-2011)

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    Default Re: Van der Wheil

    Quote Originally Posted by FormBet View Post
    It's my view that the Sad Ken 'Back In The Ring' is the most useful of all these publications.
    I sent this email to the publisher and worth noting

    *
    I have been loking at the Speed (Top 2 Ratings)* Sad Ken works out this rating by*deducting the weight carried in the race from 10stone and then adding the difference to the LTO Top Speed rating.
    *
    This is fine with runners who are all the same age, but makes a big difference with 3yr olds who are competing against 4yr old runners and older. If 10st is used or 3 yr olds it gives an inflated speed rating.
    *
    If you look at the Ayr Race 17/07/06 Sad Ken has the Following
    *
    Speed (Top 2 ratings)
    Come Out Fighting 116* (FC +5)
    Handsome Cross* 114*** (FC +7)
    *
    If you look at TOP Speed he also had the Master Rating for Come Out Fighting as 94, which was also the LTO rating as well. Now if you look at the Top Speed Adjusted rating below the race card on Page 16 of Positive profiles The Top Speed Adjusted is 112.
    *
    Top Speed adjusts the ratings for 3 yr olds by taking the Master Rating and Adjusting that by deducting the weight carried from the weight for age scale. in this case 8t 6lbs minus 9st 10lbs (Weight For age) which equals 18lbs Plus 94 (Top Speed Master Rating) equals an adjusted Top Speed Rating of 112
    *
    Now if you apply the same to the Speed (Top 2 Rating)
    *
    Handsome Cross 114 (FC +7)
    Come Out Fighting* 112 (FC +5)
    *
    *Other *Examples
    *
    *Page 40 Trick or Treat would be 88 and not 97
    Page 43 Rationale would be 102 and not 115
    Page 60 Beau Nash would be 114 and not 121 & Purple Moon 111 , not 118
    *
    I hope you don't mind my bringing this to your attention, but I think it will make the Adjusted LTO speed Ratings more accurate.
    *
    ------------------------------------

    Chesham

    Chesham
    Last edited by Chesham; 25-01-2011 at 01:52 PM.

 

 
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