Advice sought on my new Laying System.

[Maxie]

Good Morning Everyone,

I am new here so not sure of the protocol. Congratulations to you all on a great Forum, everyone seems to get along quite well and I am looking forward to joining in.

I started a Laying System 3 weeks ago which is going quite well - However I would like some input from all of you experts regarding the long term viabillity of it.

I wondered if you would be interested in me posting up on here the details so far and give me your feedback.

Thanks in advance.

[Flipsacoin]

Maxie,

Welcome to the forum, we have a fair few layers on here so feel free to post the details and hopefully people can offer their opinion on it.

[Maxie]

Good Morning Everyone.

Apologies for not posting since the initial message. I've had a few technical problems.

I will explain what I have been doing and I would appreciate your thoughts on the system and if you think I am very soon going to "catch a cold"

It's really quire simple so I suppose others have tried it (and probably failed) in the past.

EVENS OR UNDER LAYING SYSTEM.

1. I lay the favourite in all races that have a BSP of 2.00 or under to £100.00
2. If the bet loses at say 1.78 my next bet would be £78.00.
3. If that bet loses at say 1.92 (-£71.76) my next bet would be £149.76 (£78.00 + £71.76)
4. As soon as a bet wins I revert back to £100.00 stakes.

I started this for real on 24th April. I have posted the individual bet details below - However I recognise that they may make hard reading so the summary is a follows :

1. Period is 24/4/20010 to 14/5/2010.
2. Total Days 20
3. Total Bets 94
4. Total Risk £6610.37
5. Total Profit £2851.93
6. Commission @ 3.65% £201.62
7. Total Nett Profit £2650.31
8. R.O.I. = 40.09%
9. Most consecutive losing bets = 7.

Daily Summary

LAYING EVENS AND BELOW AT BSP



NO DAY DATE PROFIT LOSS
1 SAT 24-Apr -£31.64
2 SUN 25-Apr £411.15
3 MON 26-Apr -£6.33
4 TUE 27-Apr £228.17
5 WED 28-Apr £243.63
6 THU 29-Apr £286.73
7 FRI 30-Apr £187.14
8 SAT 01-May £192.70
9 SUN 02-May £95.47
10 MON 03-May £94.58
11 TUE 04-May -£62.70
12 WED 05-May £26.62
13 THU 06-May £45.55
14 FRI 07-May £51.17
15 SAT 08-May £154.80
16 SUN 09-May -£380.73
17 MON 10-May £330.80
18 TUE 11-May £192.14
19 WED 12-May £50.00
20 THU 13-May £541.05





TOTAL £3,131.70 -£481.40 £2,650.30

Individual Bets.


DATE TIME VENUE POS BSP STAKE RISK COM NETT

1 24-Apr 1355 LEICESTER U 1.73 £100.00 £73.00 £3.65 £96.35
2 24-Apr 1440 MARKET RASEN W 1.60 £100.00 £60.00 £0.00 -£60.00
3 24-Apr 1625 PUNCHESTOWN P 2.00 £60.00 £60.00 £2.19 £57.81
4 24-Apr 1710 RIPON W 1.85 £100.00 £85.00 £0.00 -£85.00
5 24-Apr 2005 HAYDOCK W 1.48 £85.00 £40.80 £0.00 -£40.80
6 25-Apr 1400 LUDLOW W 1.14 £125.80 £17.61 £0.00 -£17.61
7 25-Apr 1415 GOWRAN P 1.53 £145.00 £76.85 £5.29 £139.71
8 25-Apr 1520 GOWRAN P 1.64 £100.00 £64.00 £3.65 £96.35
9 25-Apr 1555 GOWRAN P 1.78 £100.00 £78.00 £3.65 £96.35
10 25-Apr 1705 WETHERBY P 1.72 £100.00 £72.00 £3.65 £96.35
11 26-Apr 1430 WOLVES W 1.91 £100.00 £91.00 £0.00 -£91.00
12 26-Apr 1600 WOLVES W 1.23 £91.00 £20.93 £0.00 -£20.93
13 26-Apr 1620 TOWCESTER W 1.64 £112.00 £71.68 £0.00 -£71.68
14 26-Apr 1720 FFOS LAS P 1.64 £184.00 £117.76 £6.72 £177.28
15 27-Apr 1450 WINCANTON P 1.71 £100.00 £71.00 £3.65 £96.35
16 27-Apr 1520 WINCANTON U 1.89 £100.00 £89.00 £3.65 £96.35
17 27-Apr 1540 YARMOUTH W 1.79 £100.00 £79.00 £0.00 -£79.00
18 27-Apr 1550 WINCANTON W 1.94 £79.00 £74.26 £0.00 -£74.26
19 27-Apr 1710 YARMOUTH P 1.84 £154.00 £129.36 £5.62 £148.38
20 27-Apr 1750 SEDGEFIELD P 1.44 £100.00 £44.00 £3.65 £96.35
21 27-Apr 1820 SEDGEFIELD W 1.56 £100.00 £56.00 £0.00 -£56.00
22 28-Apr 1410 ASCOT W 1.30 £56.00 £16.80 £0.00 -£16.80
23 28-Apr 1455 PONTEFRACT W 1.92 £73.00 £67.16 £0.00 -£67.16
24 28-Apr 1520 ASCOT P 1.57 £140.00 £79.80 £5.11 £134.89
25 28-Apr 1750 KELSO P 1.64 £100.00 £64.00 £3.65 £96.35
26 28-Apr 2025 KELSO U 1.94 £100.00 £94.00 £3.65 £96.35
27 29-Apr 1430 REDCAR P 1.64 £100.00 £64.00 £3.65 £96.35
28 29-Apr 1640 FOLKSTONE U 1.65 £100.00 £65.00 £3.65 £96.35
29 29-Apr 1705 REDCAR W 1.59 £100.00 £59.00 £0.00 -£59.00
30 29-Apr 1720 HEREFORD W 1.46 £59.00 £27.14 £0.00 -£27.14
31 29-Apr 1740 HUNTINGDON U 1.83 £87.00 £72.21 £3.18 £83.82
32 29-Apr 1810 HUNTINGDON U 1.72 £100.00 £72.00 £3.65 £96.35
33 30-Apr 1340 LINGFIELD U 2.00 £100.00 £100.00 £3.65 £96.35
34 30-Apr 1535 DONCASTER U 2.00 £100.00 £100.00 £3.65 £96.35
35 30-Apr 1725 LINGFIELD W 1.59 £100.00 £59.00 £0.00 -£59.00
36 30-Apr 1820 BANGOR W 1.76 £59.00 £44.84 £0.00 -£44.84
37 30-Apr 1850 BANGOR P 1.59 £102.00 £60.18 £3.72 £98.28
38 01-May 1650 NEWMARKET P 1.80 £100.00 £80.00 £3.65 £96.35
39 01-May 1915 DONCASTER P 1.71 £100.00 £71.00 £3.65 £96.35
40 02-May 1455 SALISBURY U 1.91 £100.00 £91.00 £3.65 £96.35
41 02-May 1515 SLIGO W 1.24 £100.00 £24.00 £0.00 -£24.00
42 02-May 1650 SLIGO P 1.74 £24.00 £17.76 £0.88 £23.12
43 03-May 1430 KEMPTON P 1.83 £100.00 £83.00 £3.65 £96.35
44 03-May 1510 WARWICK W 1.20 £100.00 £20.00 £0.00 -£20.00
45 03-May 1530 KEMPTON W 1.74 £20.00 £14.80 £0.00 -£14.80
46 03-May 1615 CURRAGH W 1.35 £35.00 £12.25 £0.00 -£12.25
47 03-May 1710 WARWICK P 1.68 £47.00 £31.96 £1.72 £45.28
48 04-May 1540 NEWCASTLE W 1.33 £100.00 £33.00 £0.00 -£33.00
49 04-May 1800 CATTERICK W 1.90 £33.00 £29.70 £0.00 -£29.70
50 05-May 1505 KELSO W 1.92 £63.00 £57.96 £0.00 -£57.96
51 05-May 1645 SOUTHWELL P 1.76 £121.00 £91.96 £4.42 £116.58
52 05-May 1720 HUNTINGDON W 1.32 £100.00 £32.00 £0.00 -£32.00
53 06-May 1435 N. ABBOTT P 1.92 £32.00 £29.44 £1.17 £30.83
54 06-May 1500 GOODWOOD U 1.86 £100.00 £86.00 £3.65 £96.35
55 06-May 1620 N. ABBOTT W 1.58 £100.00 £58.00 £0.00 -£58.00
56 06-May 1755 FFOS LAS W 1.76 £58.00 £44.08 £0.00 -£44.08
57 06-May 1825 FFOS LAS W 1.71 £103.00 £73.13 £0.00 -£73.13
58 06-May 1940 WINCANTON P 1.70 £176.00 £123.20 £6.42 £169.58
59 06-May 1955 WETHERBY W 1.76 £100.00 £76.00 £0.00 -£76.00
60 07-May 1445 CHESTER W 1.67 £76.00 £50.92 £0.00 -£50.92
61 07-May 1555 CHESTER W 1.63 £130.00 £81.90 £0.00 -£81.90
62 07-May 1740 WEXFORD W 1.90 £209.00 £188.10 £0.00 -£188.10
63 07-May 1815 HAMILTON W 1.14 £391.00 £54.74 £0.00 -£54.74
64 07-May 1845 HAMILTON P 1.51 £443.00 £225.93 £16.17 £426.83
65 08-May 1420 ASCOT P 1.85 £100.00 £85.00 £3.65 £96.40
66 08-May 1440 LINGFIELD P 1.65 £100.00 £65.00 £3.65 £96.40
67 08-May 1545 LINGFIELD W 1.38 £100.00 £38.00 £0.00 -£38.00
68 09-May 1400 UTTOXETER W 1.82 £38.00 £31.16 £0.00 -£31.16
69 09-May 1425 KILARNEY W 1.54 £69.16 £37.35 £0.00 -£37.35
70 09-May 1430 UTTOXETER W 1.88 £106.51 £93.73 £0.00 -£93.73
71 09-May 1610 PLUMPTON W 1.45 £201.00 £90.45 £0.00 -£90.45
72 09-May 1735 LEOPARDSTOWN W 1.44 £291.00 £128.04 £0.00 -£128.04
73 10-May 1410 BRIGHTON W 1.51 £420.00 £214.20 £0.00 -£214.20
74 10-May 1730 WOLVES U 1.58 £635.00 £368.30 £23.18 £635.00
75 10-May MON 2000 TOWCESTER W 1.90 £100.00 -£90.00 £0.00 -£90.00
76 11-May TUE 1420 YARMOUTH P 1.92 £90.00 £82.80 £3.02 £79.78
77 11-May TUE 1430 BEVERLEY P 1.68 £100.00 £100.00 £3.65 £96.35
78 11-May TUE 1510 WARWICK U 1.50 £100.00 £100.00 £3.65 £96.35
79 11-May TUE 1630 BEVERLEY W 1.30 £100.00 -£30.00 £0.00 -£30.00
80 11-May TUE 1800 N.ABBOTT W 1.75 £30.00 -£22.50 £0.00 -£22.50
81 11-May TUE 2040 KILLARNEY W 1.72 £53.00 -£38.16 £0.00 -£38.16
82 12-May WED 1555 EXETER P 1.72 £91.00 £91.00 £3.32 £87.68
83 12-May WED 1810 NAAS W 1.25 £100.00 -£25.00 £0.00 -£25.00
84 12-May WED 1920 PERTH W 1.64 £25.00 -£16.00 £0.00 -£16.00
85 13-May THU 1420 PERTH W 1.95 £41.00 -£38.95 £0.00 -£38.95
86 13-May THU 1525 PERTH W 1.34 £80.00 -£80.00 £0.00 -£80.00
87 13-May THU 1705 PERTH U 1.74 £160.00 £160.00 £5.84 £154.16
88 13-May THU 1720 GOWRAN PARK U 1.71 £100.00 £100.00 £3.65 £96.35
89 13-May THU 1725 LUDLOW U 1.84 £100.00 £100.00 £3.65 £96.35
90 13-May THU 1740 PERTH P 2.00 £100.00 £100.00 £3.65 £96.35
91 13-May THU 1745 NEWMARKET W 1.40 £100.00 -£40.00 £0.00 -£40.00
92 13-May THU 1850 NEWMARKET U 1.66 £40.00 £40.00 £1.46 £38.54
93 13-May THU 1905 LUDLOW P 1.91 £100.00 £100.00 £3.65 £96.35
94 13-May THU 2010 LUDLOW P 1.76 £100.00 £100.00 £3.65 £96.35



OK so thats it so far. I will keep this updated whenever possible. In the meantime I would appreciate your thoughts and comments on the above.

Best of luck

Maxie.

[Flipsacoin]

Right, I have to say I stopped reading after the first rule.

Unless you have a good reason for laying a horse then quite simply, you shouldn't. The fact it is short in price is NOT a good reason.

The price of a horse has no outcome on the result. If you devise a system that is successful and THEN add price filters to make it more profitable this is different. But using the price of a horse as a starting base is a very bad idea.

Those are my thoughts.

Ark Royal has a database that he willl be able to pull up all horses that ran at <2.0 and maybe give you long term results.

[dave58]

Hi, maxie - welcome to the forum
I'm probably not the best person to comment as I'm a backer rather than a layer, but my first thought is to be blooming careful with any sort of loss-recovery scheme. I'll leave you to do the sums, but you've been doing this for 3 weeks and already had a losing run of 7 - who's to say whether that represents a bad run of results or (worse !) a good run.
Having said that, you've made a decent enough profit over that time, so I guess at least you've got enough of the bookies' money to withstand a big downer, so maybe you could build it up quickly enough to withstand it when things go a bit pear-shaped - you'll be playing a risky game, but at least it's not with your money !!
Having said that, in your position I would be inclined to take the money while you can !
Best of luck with it, anyway
Dave

[jeff and the mutt]

Gotta agree with Flipsacoin on all of those points.

Laying is difficult to make a profit with at the best of times due to liability punishment and many have tried a price based sub 2.00 system to try to conquer that. There is one doing the rounds at the moment by Matt Watson author of Favorites Phenomenom called 'Lay Odds On Favs' which lays anything that drops below 2.00 in running and otherwise. That's stumbling along as I understand it.

My main point is that any form of loss recovery is bad enough if you're backing, but to impliment it for laying is suicidal imho. This plan looks fairly mild compared with many I've seen as you seem to be only recovering losses not the the origional £100 target which isn't so punative. The worst I've seen was a system called BaLay authored by the couple who devised Fancy Fillies. I have the loss recovery Lay calculator that came with it and the system itself if anyone wants it to line the bottom of their budgie cage.

I'd be interested to know how you are placing your bets to ensure that you only capture sub 2.00 selections. I'm guessing that you'd either have to be betting live or using a bot.

If I were you I'd run the whole thing through Massey or Proform before commiting any serious funds to it.

Welcome, by the way.

[TheLongMan]

Hi maxie,
welcome to the forum.
As the other (and really more experienced than me!) people already have written: This seems to be a very risky operation.
But: I wonder about your records.
Let's take the last line of your above posted bets:

94 13-May 2010 LUDLOW P 1.76 £100.00 £76.00 £3.65 £100.00

You've staked 100 and you have to pay 3.65 commision. WHY do you write a net winning of 100???
Where is the mistake?

[stuartd]

I received a Nick Pullen email yesterday about why not to lay odds on, here are the details

Let's have a look at what odds-on shots have achieved as a group on
the turf in Britain over the last few seasons.
Year Runners Wins WSR%
2003 624 366 58.65
2004 442 252 57.01
2005 346 192 55.49
2006 444 259 58.33
2007 400 230 57.30
2008 468 272 58.12
2009 461 269 58.35
2010 52 26 50.00

That's pretty conclusive. Approaching 60% of odds-on shots win
their races. What about the profits? Were there any? No - on SPs
the figures show negligible profits for some of the seasons. But
that's more than wiped out when you take into account that on
occasions you'll be laying on the exchanges at odds slightly bigger
than SP and paying an exchange commission of up to 5% on all your
successful lays.
Maybe a bit more selectivity is what's needed here? Maybe we need
to find a sub-group of odds-on shots that don't win quite so
frequently?
How about if we just focus on 2-year-old odds on shots? 2-year olds
are young horses, still learning the trade, prone to mistakes,
unpredictable - and often over-hyped by pundits and punters who see
the next wonder horse emerging at every turn. Is this a good group
to oppose at short-prices? 1338 2-year-olds have been sent off at
odds-on since the beginning of the 2003 season. 772 of them won at
a strike rate of 57.7% - and produced no significant, if any,
profit.
How about 2-year-olds over 5 furlongs? Not all 2-year-olds are
sprinters. Many will be at their best in later years over longer
trips. But they will still often run over 5 furlongs at 2. Do these
types go off at odds-on? Does the market miss a trick and over-
support 2-year-olds not suited to the minimum trip. Not on the
figures. 56.9% of odds-on 2-year-old runners over 5f win their
races - and produce no profit for layers.
Okay. What about odds-on 2-year olds over 7f and beyond - the kind
of trips that provide a test of stamina for a 2-year-old? Maybe the
market gets these types of races wrong and consistently over-bets
horses that shine over shorter distances but can't subsequently
step up to trips as a 2-year-old. It's worth a look - but the
results are getting predictable. 57.8% of 2-year-olds sent off at
odds-on over 7f+ win their races - and produce no profit for
layers.
What about focusing on odds-on shots that have been off the
racecourse for 6 weeks or more? Plenty of these types are likely to
be short of peak fitness and in need of a run. The short price
about them might have more to do with past achievements than
current race-readiness? How does this group perform on the stats?
Not many horses are backed in to odds-on when returning to the
course off a 6 week break. Just 25 such runners have gone to post
since 2003 - but 18 of them won at 72% and produced no profit for
layers.
Do the top jockeys get over-bet? Does the wider market over-bet
their rides? Are some horses backed into short-prices more because
of who is onboard rather than their true chances based on their
bare ability? It doesn't look like it - Dettori, Moore, Spencer,
Fallon, Hughes and the like all win on odds-on shots at least 50%
of the time and produce no profit for layers.
How about the lesser lights of the weighing room? They might draw
quite so much of the racing media's attention but you can get your
fingers burnt underestimating them. For example, Joe Fanning, Paul
Hanagan, Martin Dwyer, Richard Hills, Michael Hills and Phillip
Robinson all get their odds-on shots home in 1st place at least 55%
of the time - and in some cases well over 60% of the time. It is
not profitable to lay their odds-on rides.
I could keep on going. Whichever way I look at it I can't find a
way of laying odds-on shots for profit on the exchanges. And I'm
not sure it's worth the effort involved trying. My focus is better
employed in other areas - on alternative price bands and different
groups and sub-groups of horses which can be laid consistently to
produce long-term profit. I'd suggest that yours is too. I hope
that answers the question.

Also with regards to loss recovery, I have ben looking at Timeform race of the day for nearly a month the longest losing run was 3, it is now 10 and still counting, so with this sort of loss recovery it would have been bank busting

[Maxie]

Thepostman

You are correct - Well spotted.

I had a "Senior Spreadsheet Moment" I have adjusted the figures in the above post.

The changes take the profit down to £2587.84.

Thanx for taking an interest.

I appreciate all of your comments and your sceptismn and words of caution. They are all duly noted.

I think I will withdraw some profit and leave my bank at £1000.00. I am going to carry on and see what occurs. At least if it all goes the shape of the pear I will have only lost some excess profit.

Thanx again guys and good luck.

[Maxie]

Thanks Stuart.

Well you guys really know how to cheer someone up. The more I read the more nervous I get.

I spend 10 or 12 hours a day on the exchanges and this exercise is just that - an exercise. I am usually frying much larger fish. However I thought it would be worth a shot so hey ho.

I have loaded my bot with the revised bank, set the parameters and started it rolling.

I will keep you all posted as to the progress.

I suppose I should be making myself prepared for plenty of "I told you so's"

Cheers.

Maxie